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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2023

Assessing changes in global fire regimes

Sayedeh Sara Sayedi (1) , Benjamin Abbott (1) , Boris Vannière (2, 3, 4, 5) , Bérangère Leys , Daniele Colombaroli (5) , Graciela Gil Romera , Michał Słowiński (6) , Julie Aleman (7, 8) , Olivier Blarquez (8) , Angelica Feurdean (9) , Kendrick Brown , Tuomas Aakala , Teija Alenius (10, 11) , Kathryn Allen (12) , Maja Andric (13) , Yves Bergeron (14) , Siria Biagioni , Richard Bradshaw (15) , Laurent Bremond (16) , Elodie Brisset (17) , Joseph Brooks , Sandra Bruegger , Thomas Brussel , Haidee Cadd , Eleonora Cagliero , Christopher Carcaillet , Vachel Carter , Filipe Catry , Antoine Champreux , Emeline Chaste , Raphaël Daniel Chavardès , Melissa Chipman , Marco Conedera , Simon Connor , Mark Constantine , Colin Courtney Mustaphi , Abraham Dabengwa , William Daniels , Erik de Boer , Elisabeth Dietze , Joan Estrany , Paulo Fernandes , Walter Finsinger (16) , Suzette Flantua , Paul Fox-Hughes , Dorian Gaboriau , Eugenia Gayo , Martin.P Girardin , Jeffery Glenn , Ramesh Glückler , Catalina González-Arango , Mariangelica Groves , Rebecca Jenner Hamilton , Douglas Hamilton , Stijn Hantson , K. Anggi Hapsari , Mark Hardiman , Donna Hawthorne , Kira Hoffman , Virginia Iglesias , Jun Inoue , Allison Karp , Patrik Krebs , Charuta Kulkarni , Niina Kuosmanen , Terri Lacourse , Marie-Pierre Ledru , Marion Lestienne , Colin Long , José Antonio López-Sáez , Nicholas Loughlin , Elizabeth Lynch , Mats Niklasson , Javier Madrigal , S. Yoshi Maezumi , Katarzyna Marcisz , Grant Meyer , Michela Mariani , David Mcwethy , Chiara Molinari , Encarni Montoya , Scott Mooney , Cesar Morales-Molino , Jesse Morris , Patrick Moss , Imma Oliveras , José Miguel Pereira , Gianni Boris Pezzatti , Nadine Pickarski , Roberta Pini , Vincent Robin , Emma Rehn , Cecile Remy , Damien Rius , Yanming Ruan , Natalia Rudaya , Jeremy Russell-Smith , Heikki Seppä , Lyudmila Shumilovskikh , William Sommers , Çağatay Tavşanoğlu , Charles Umbanhowar , Erickson Urquiaga , Dunia Urrego , Richard Vachula , Tuomo Wallenius , Chao You , Anne-Laure Daniau
Sayedeh Sara Sayedi
Benjamin Abbott
Bérangère Leys
Graciela Gil Romera
Kendrick Brown
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tuomas Aakala
Siria Biagioni
Richard Bradshaw
Joseph Brooks
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sandra Bruegger
Thomas Brussel
Haidee Cadd
Eleonora Cagliero
Christopher Carcaillet
Vachel Carter
Filipe Catry
Antoine Champreux
Emeline Chaste
  • Fonction : Auteur
Raphaël Daniel Chavardès
Melissa Chipman
Marco Conedera
Simon Connor
Mark Constantine
  • Fonction : Auteur
Colin Courtney Mustaphi
Abraham Dabengwa
William Daniels
Erik de Boer
Elisabeth Dietze
Joan Estrany
Paulo Fernandes
Suzette Flantua
Paul Fox-Hughes
Dorian Gaboriau
Eugenia Gayo
Martin.P Girardin
Jeffery Glenn
Ramesh Glückler
Catalina González-Arango
Mariangelica Groves
Rebecca Jenner Hamilton
  • Fonction : Auteur
Douglas Hamilton
Stijn Hantson
K. Anggi Hapsari
Mark Hardiman
Donna Hawthorne
Kira Hoffman
Virginia Iglesias
Jun Inoue
Allison Karp
Patrik Krebs
  • Fonction : Auteur
Charuta Kulkarni
Niina Kuosmanen
Terri Lacourse
Marie-Pierre Ledru
Marion Lestienne
Colin Long
  • Fonction : Auteur
José Antonio López-Sáez
  • Fonction : Auteur
Nicholas Loughlin
Elizabeth Lynch
  • Fonction : Auteur
Mats Niklasson
  • Fonction : Auteur
Javier Madrigal
S. Yoshi Maezumi
Katarzyna Marcisz
Grant Meyer
  • Fonction : Auteur
Michela Mariani
David Mcwethy
Chiara Molinari
Encarni Montoya
Scott Mooney
Cesar Morales-Molino
Jesse Morris
  • Fonction : Auteur
Patrick Moss
Imma Oliveras
  • Fonction : Auteur
José Miguel Pereira
Gianni Boris Pezzatti
Nadine Pickarski
Roberta Pini
Vincent Robin
Emma Rehn
Cecile Remy
Damien Rius
Yanming Ruan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Natalia Rudaya
Jeremy Russell-Smith
  • Fonction : Auteur
Heikki Seppä
Lyudmila Shumilovskikh
  • Fonction : Auteur
William Sommers
  • Fonction : Auteur
Çağatay Tavşanoğlu
Charles Umbanhowar
Erickson Urquiaga
Dunia Urrego
Richard Vachula
Tuomo Wallenius
  • Fonction : Auteur
Chao You
  • Fonction : Auteur
Anne-Laure Daniau

Résumé

Human activity has fundamentally altered wildfire on Earth, creating serious consequences for human health, global biodiversity, and climate change. However, it remains difficult to predict fire interactions with land use, management, and climate change, representing a serious knowledge gap and vulnerability. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 98 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Respondents indicated that direct human activity was already influencing wildfires locally since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime until around 5000 years BP. Responses showed a ten-fold increase in the rate of wildfire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in fire frequency, severity, and/or size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regime showed quite different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, concluding that management options are seriously constrained under higher emission scenarios.

Dates et versions

hal-04101572 , version 1 (20-05-2023)

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Sayedeh Sara Sayedi, Benjamin Abbott, Boris Vannière, Bérangère Leys, Daniele Colombaroli, et al.. Assessing changes in global fire regimes. 2023. ⟨hal-04101572⟩
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