Assessing changes in global fire regimes
Sayedeh Sara Sayedi
(1)
,
Benjamin Abbott
(1)
,
Boris Vannière
(2, 3, 4, 5)
,
Bérangère Leys
(6)
,
Daniele Colombaroli
(7)
,
Graciela Gil Romera
(8)
,
Michał Słowiński
(9)
,
Julie Aleman
(10)
,
Olivier Blarquez
(11)
,
Angelica Feurdean
(12, 13)
,
Kendrick Brown
(14, 15)
,
Tuomas Aakala
(16)
,
Teija Alenius
(17)
,
Kathryn Allen
(18, 19, 20)
,
Maja Andric
(21)
,
Yves Bergeron
(22, 23)
,
Siria Biagioni
(24)
,
Richard Bradshaw
(25)
,
Laurent Bremond
(26)
,
Elodie Brisset
(6)
,
Joseph Brooks
(25)
,
Sandra Brugger
(27, 28)
,
Thomas Brussel
(29)
,
Haidee Cadd
(30)
,
Eleonora Cagliero
(31, 26)
,
Christopher Carcaillet
(32, 33, 34, 35)
,
Vachel Carter
(36)
,
Filipe Catry
(37)
,
Antoine Champreux
(38)
,
Emeline Chaste
(39)
,
Raphaël Daniel Chavardès
(22, 14)
,
Melissa Chipman
(40)
,
Marco Conedera
(41)
,
Simon Connor
(42)
,
Mark Constantine
(20)
,
Colin Courtney Mustaphi
(27)
,
Abraham Dabengwa
(43)
,
William Daniels
(44, 45)
,
Erik de Boer
(46)
,
Elisabeth Dietze
(47, 24)
,
Joan Estrany
(48)
,
Paulo Fernandes
(49)
,
Walter Finsinger
(26)
,
Suzette Flantua
(50)
,
Paul Fox-Hughes
(51)
,
Dorian Gaboriau
(22)
,
Eugenia M.Gayo
(52, 53)
,
Martin. Girardin
(14)
,
Jeffrey Glenn
(1)
,
Ramesh Glückler
(47)
,
Catalina González-Arango
(54)
,
Mariangelica Groves
(55)
,
Douglas Hamilton
(56)
,
Rebecca Jenner Hamilton
(57)
,
Stijn Hantson
(58)
,
K. Anggi Hapsari
(24)
,
Mark Hardiman
(59)
,
Donna Hawthorne
(60)
,
Kira Hoffman
(15)
,
Jun Inoue
(61)
,
Allison Karp
(62)
,
Patrik Krebs
(63)
,
Charuta Kulkarni
(64)
,
Niina Kuosmanen
(65)
,
Terri Lacourse
(66)
,
Marie-Pierre Ledru
(26)
,
Marion Lestienne
(67, 26)
,
Colin Long
(68)
,
José Antonio López-Sáez
(69)
,
Nicholas Loughlin
(70)
,
Mats Niklasson
(71)
,
Javier Madrigal
(72)
,
S. Yoshi Maezumi
(73)
,
Katarzyna Marcisz
(74)
,
Michela Mariani
(75)
,
David Mcwethy
(76)
,
Grant Meyer
(77)
,
Chiara Molinari
(78)
,
Encarni Montoya
(79)
,
Scott Mooney
(80)
,
Cesar Morales-Molino
(5)
,
Jesse Morris
(81)
,
Patrick Moss
(82)
,
Imma Oliveras
(83)
,
José Miguel Pereira
(84)
,
Gianni Boris Pezzatti
(41)
,
Nadine Pickarski
(85)
,
Roberta Pini
(86)
,
Emma Rehn
(87)
,
Cécile Remy
(88)
,
Jordi Revelles
(89, 90)
,
Damien Rius
(3)
,
Vincent Robin
(91)
,
Yanming Ruan
(92)
,
Natalia Rudaya
(93)
,
Jeremy Russell-Smith
(94)
,
Heikki Seppä
(95)
,
Lyudmila Shumilovskikh
(24)
,
William T.Sommers
(96)
,
Çağatay Tavşanoğlu
(97)
,
Charles Umbanhowar
(98)
,
Erickson Urquiaga
(99, 100)
,
Dunia Urrego
(101)
,
Richard Vachula
(102)
,
Tuomo Wallenius
(103)
,
Chao You
(104)
,
Anne-Laure Daniau
(105)
1
BYU -
Brigham Young University
2 Institute of Plant Sciences
3 LCE - Laboratoire Chrono-environnement (UMR 6249)
4 MSHE - Maison des Sciences de l'Homme et de l'Environnement Claude Nicolas Ledoux (UAR 3124)
5 OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
6 IMBE - Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale
7 RHUL - Royal Holloway [University of London]
8 Philipps Universität Marburg = Philipps University of Marburg
9 PAN - Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences = Académie polonaise des sciences
10 CEREGE - Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement des Géosciences de l'Environnement
11 UdeM - Université de Montréal
12 Goethe University Frankfurt
13 UBB - Babes-Bolyai University [Cluj-Napoca]
14 Canadian Forest Service - CFS (CANADA)
15 UBC - University of British Columbia [Canada]
16 University of Eastern Finland
17 University of Turku
18 UTAS - University of Tasmania [Hobart]
19 University of Melbourne
20 UNSW - University of New South Wales [Sydney]
21 ZRC SAZU
22 UQAT - Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
23 UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal
24 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
25 University of Liverpool
26 UMR ISEM - Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
27 Unibas - Université de Bâle = University of Basel = Basel Universität
28 PSI - Paul Scherrer Institute
29 University of Oregon [Eugene]
30 University of Wollongong [Australia]
31 Unipd - Università degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua
32 P3E - Équipe 6 - Paléontologie, Paléoécologie, Paléobiogéographie, Évolution
33 EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études
34 LEHNA - Laboratoire d'Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés
35 CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]
36 LANL - Los Alamos National Laboratory
37 ULISBOA - Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon = Université de Lisbonne
38 Flinders University [Adelaide, Australia]
39 UMR Eco&Sols - Ecologie fonctionnelle et biogéochimie des sols et des agro-écosystèmes
40 Syracuse University
41 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
42 ANU - Australian National University
43 WITS - University of the Witwatersrand [Johannesburg]
44 UMass Amherst - University of Massachusetts [Amherst]
45 NM-AIST - Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science & Technology
46 CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries
47 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine
48 UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands
49 UTAD - Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro
50 UiB - University of Bergen
51 BoM - Australian Bureau of Meteorology [Melbourne]
52 UCHILE - Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago]
53 IEB - Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad
54 UNIANDES - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota]
55 WSU - Weber State University
56 NC State - North Carolina State University [Raleigh]
57 MPI-SHH - Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History
58 Universidad del Rosario [Bogota]
59 University of Portsmouth
60 University of St Andrews [Scotland]
61 Osaka Metropolitan University
62 Yale University [New Haven]
63 Swiss Federal Research Institute
64 IIT Madras - Indian Institute of Technology Madras
65 Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki
66 UVic-Genome BC Proteomics Centre - Genome British Columbia Proteomics Centre [Victoria]
67 ECOBIO - Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes]
68 UWO - University of Wisconsin–Oshkosh
69 CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
70 Northumbria University [Newcastle]
71 SLU - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences = Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
72 INIA - Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria = National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology
73 Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology
74 UAM - Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu = Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań
75 UON - University of Nottingham, UK
76 MSU - Montana State University
77 The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
78 UniGe - Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa
79 GEO3BCN - Geosciencies Barcelona
80 BEES - School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Sydney]
81 University of Utah
82 QUT - Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane]
83 Environmental Change Institute
84 School of Agriculture [Lisboa]
85 WWU - Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster = University of Münster
86 CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
87 JCU - James Cook University
88 UNIA - Universität Augsburg [Deutschland] = University of Augsburg [Germany] = Université d'Augsburg [Allemagne]
89 IPHES-CERCA - Institut Català de Paleoecologia Humana i Evolució Social
90 Universitat Rovira i Virgili
91 LIEC - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux
92 NIOZ - Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
93 IAE NAS RA - Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography of National Academy of Sciences of Armenia
94 Charles Darwin University [Australia]
95 Department of Geosciences and Geography [Helsinki]
96 George Mason University [Fairfax]
97 Hacettepe University = Hacettepe Üniversitesi
98 St. Olaf College
99 UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich
100 UNSAAC - Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco
101 University of Exeter
102 AU - Auburn University
103 Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences [Helsinki]
104 Chongqing University [Chongqing]
105 EPOC - Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques
2 Institute of Plant Sciences
3 LCE - Laboratoire Chrono-environnement (UMR 6249)
4 MSHE - Maison des Sciences de l'Homme et de l'Environnement Claude Nicolas Ledoux (UAR 3124)
5 OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
6 IMBE - Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale
7 RHUL - Royal Holloway [University of London]
8 Philipps Universität Marburg = Philipps University of Marburg
9 PAN - Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences = Académie polonaise des sciences
10 CEREGE - Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement des Géosciences de l'Environnement
11 UdeM - Université de Montréal
12 Goethe University Frankfurt
13 UBB - Babes-Bolyai University [Cluj-Napoca]
14 Canadian Forest Service - CFS (CANADA)
15 UBC - University of British Columbia [Canada]
16 University of Eastern Finland
17 University of Turku
18 UTAS - University of Tasmania [Hobart]
19 University of Melbourne
20 UNSW - University of New South Wales [Sydney]
21 ZRC SAZU
22 UQAT - Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
23 UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal
24 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
25 University of Liverpool
26 UMR ISEM - Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
27 Unibas - Université de Bâle = University of Basel = Basel Universität
28 PSI - Paul Scherrer Institute
29 University of Oregon [Eugene]
30 University of Wollongong [Australia]
31 Unipd - Università degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua
32 P3E - Équipe 6 - Paléontologie, Paléoécologie, Paléobiogéographie, Évolution
33 EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études
34 LEHNA - Laboratoire d'Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés
35 CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]
36 LANL - Los Alamos National Laboratory
37 ULISBOA - Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon = Université de Lisbonne
38 Flinders University [Adelaide, Australia]
39 UMR Eco&Sols - Ecologie fonctionnelle et biogéochimie des sols et des agro-écosystèmes
40 Syracuse University
41 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
42 ANU - Australian National University
43 WITS - University of the Witwatersrand [Johannesburg]
44 UMass Amherst - University of Massachusetts [Amherst]
45 NM-AIST - Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science & Technology
46 CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries
47 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine
48 UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands
49 UTAD - Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro
50 UiB - University of Bergen
51 BoM - Australian Bureau of Meteorology [Melbourne]
52 UCHILE - Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago]
53 IEB - Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad
54 UNIANDES - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota]
55 WSU - Weber State University
56 NC State - North Carolina State University [Raleigh]
57 MPI-SHH - Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History
58 Universidad del Rosario [Bogota]
59 University of Portsmouth
60 University of St Andrews [Scotland]
61 Osaka Metropolitan University
62 Yale University [New Haven]
63 Swiss Federal Research Institute
64 IIT Madras - Indian Institute of Technology Madras
65 Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki
66 UVic-Genome BC Proteomics Centre - Genome British Columbia Proteomics Centre [Victoria]
67 ECOBIO - Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes]
68 UWO - University of Wisconsin–Oshkosh
69 CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
70 Northumbria University [Newcastle]
71 SLU - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences = Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
72 INIA - Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria = National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology
73 Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology
74 UAM - Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu = Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań
75 UON - University of Nottingham, UK
76 MSU - Montana State University
77 The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
78 UniGe - Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa
79 GEO3BCN - Geosciencies Barcelona
80 BEES - School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Sydney]
81 University of Utah
82 QUT - Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane]
83 Environmental Change Institute
84 School of Agriculture [Lisboa]
85 WWU - Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster = University of Münster
86 CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
87 JCU - James Cook University
88 UNIA - Universität Augsburg [Deutschland] = University of Augsburg [Germany] = Université d'Augsburg [Allemagne]
89 IPHES-CERCA - Institut Català de Paleoecologia Humana i Evolució Social
90 Universitat Rovira i Virgili
91 LIEC - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux
92 NIOZ - Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
93 IAE NAS RA - Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography of National Academy of Sciences of Armenia
94 Charles Darwin University [Australia]
95 Department of Geosciences and Geography [Helsinki]
96 George Mason University [Fairfax]
97 Hacettepe University = Hacettepe Üniversitesi
98 St. Olaf College
99 UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich
100 UNSAAC - Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco
101 University of Exeter
102 AU - Auburn University
103 Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences [Helsinki]
104 Chongqing University [Chongqing]
105 EPOC - Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques
Sayedeh Sara Sayedi
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1255596
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5272-4383
Bérangère Leys
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 737996
- IdHAL : berangere-leys
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5485-0156
- IdRef : 261935593
Julie Aleman
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1218751
- IdHAL : julie-aleman
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0835-7015
- IdRef : 178579270
Elodie Brisset
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1753
- IdHAL : elodie-brisset
- ORCID : 0000-0001-8706-0505
- IdRef : 185920594
Walter Finsinger
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 19989
- IdHAL : walter-finsinger
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8297-0574
- IdRef : 224248308
Damien Rius
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1189172
- IdHAL : damienrius
Résumé
Background The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300.
Results Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios.
Conclusion The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.
Antecedentes: Las huellas humanas globales han alterado fundamentalmente los regímenes de fuegos, creando serias consecuencias para la salud humana, la biodiversidad y el clima. Sin embargo, resulta difícil proyectar cómo las interacciones a largo plazo entre el uso de la tierra, la gestión, y el Cambio Climático van a afectar el comportamiento del fuego, lo que representa un vacío clave en el conocimiento para la gestión sostenible. Usamos las apreciaciones de expertos para combinar opiniones sobre regímenes de fuegos pasados y futuros de 99 investigadores en el tema de fuegos de vegetación. Preguntamos por determinaciones cualitativas y cuantitativas de la frecuencia, tipo, e implicaciones de los cambios en los regímenes de fuegos desde el inicio del Holoceno hasta el año 2300.
Resultados Quienes respondieron indicaron alguna influencia humana directa en los fuegos de vegetación desde al menos ~ 12.000 años atrás, en los que la variabilidad climática perduró como la conductora dominante de los cambios en los regímenes de fuego hasta hace aproximadamente unos 5.000 años, para la mayoría de las regiones en estudio. Las respuestas sugirieron que hubo un incremento de 10 veces en la frecuencia de cambios en los regímenes de fuego durante los últimos 250 años comparado con el resto del Holoceno, correspondiendo en primer lugar con la intensificación y expansión del uso de la tierra y luego con el Cambio Climático antropogénico. Mirando al futuro, predicen que los cambios en los regímenes de fuego se intensificarán, con incrementos en la frecuencia, severidad, y tamaño en todos los biomas con excepción de los ecosistemas de pastizales. Los regímenes de fuego muestran diferente sensibilidad climática a través de los biomas, aunque la probabilidad de cambio en el régimen de fuego se incrementa con mayores escenarios de calentamiento en todos los biomas. Predicen asimismo que la biodiversidad, el almacenamiento de Carbono, y otros servicios ecosistémicos, van a decrecer para la mayoría de los biomas bajo escenarios de mayores emisiones. Presentamos recomendaciones para la adaptación y mitigación bajo regímenes de fuego emergentes, mientras que reconocemos que las opciones de manejo están condicionadas bajo escenarios de mayores emisiones.
Conclusiones La influencia de los humanos en los regímenes de fuego se ha incrementado en las últimas dos centurias. Las perspectivas ganadas sobre incendios pasados deben ser consideradas en las estrategias de manejo de tierras y de fuego, aunque un nuevo comportamiento del fuego es probable, dado que la disrupción humana en las comunidades vegetales, en el clima, y en otros factores no tiene precedentes. Los regímenes de fuegos futuros probablemente degraden algunos servicios ecosistémicos clave, al menos que el Cambio Climático sea agresivamente mitigado. Las apreciaciones de los expertos complementan los datos empíricos y modelados, proveyendo una perspectiva más amplia de la ciencia del fuego para informar a los decisores y priorizar futuras investigaciones.
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