Article Dans Une Revue Information Sciences Année : 2019

Pari-mutuel probabilities as an uncertainty model

Résumé

The pari-mutuel model is a betting scheme that has its origins in horse racing, and that has been applied in a number of contexts, mostly economics. In this paper, we consider the set of probability measures compatible with a pari-mutuel model, characterize its extreme points, and investigate the properties of the associated lower and upper probabilities. We show that the pari-mutuel model can be embedded within the theory of probability intervals, and prove necessary and sucient conditions for it to be a belief function or a minitive measure. In addition, we also investigate the combination of dierent pari-mutuel models and their denition on product spaces.

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hal-01971487 , version 1 (07-01-2019)

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Ignacio Montes, Enrique Miranda, Sébastien Destercke. Pari-mutuel probabilities as an uncertainty model. Information Sciences, 2019, 481, pp.550-573. ⟨10.1016/j.ins.2019.01.005⟩. ⟨hal-01971487⟩
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