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Article Dans Une Revue Machine Learning with Applications Année : 2023

Deep generative modelling of aircraft trajectories in terminal maneuvering areas

Génération de trajectoires en zone de manœuvre terminale par apprentissage profond

Résumé

Airspace design is subject to a multitude of constraints, which are mainly driven by the concern to keep the risk of mid-air collision below a target level of safety. For that purpose, Monte Carlo simulation methods can be applied to estimate aircraft conflict probability but require the accurate generation of artificial trajectories. Generative models allow to generate an infinite number of trajectories for air traffic procedures where only few observations are available. The generated trajectories must not only resemble observed trajectories in terms of statistical distributions but they should stay flyable and consider uncertainty due to weather, air traffic control, aircraft performances, or human factors. This paper focuses on the generation problem, and its main contribution lies in the adaptation of the Variational Autoencoder structure to the problem of 4-dimensional aircraft trajectories modelling using Temporal Convolutional Networks and a prior distribution composed of a Variational Mixture of Posteriors (VampPrior). The proposed model has been trained on trajectories in the Terminal Manoeuvre Area of Zurich airport, which have a particularly high degree of variability as air traffic controllers often take actions that deviate aircraft from the nominal approach procedure. The model has demonstrated great abilities to take into account such amount of uncertainty. Regarding metrics that evaluate the estimation of the statistical distribution of the observed trajectories, and the flyability of the generated ones, the proposed method outperforms traditional statistical methods by being able to generate more complex and realistic trajectories.
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Dates et versions

hal-04011881 , version 1 (02-03-2023)

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Timothé Krauth, Adrien Lafage, Jérôme Morio, Xavier Olive, Manuel Waltert. Deep generative modelling of aircraft trajectories in terminal maneuvering areas. Machine Learning with Applications, 2023, 11, pp.100446. ⟨10.1016/j.mlwa.2022.100446⟩. ⟨hal-04011881⟩

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