An optimal tradeoff between explorations and repetitions in global sensitivity analysis for stochastic computer models
Résumé
Global sensitivity analysis often accompanies computer modeling to understand what
are the important factors of a model of interest. In particular, Sobol indices, naturally estimated
by Monte-Carlo methods, permit to quantify the contribution of the inputs to the variability of the
output. However, stochastic computer models raise difficulties. There is no unique definition of Sobol
indices and their estimation is difficult because a good balance between repetitions of the computer
code and explorations of the input space must be found. The problem of finding an optimal tradeoff
between explorations and repetitions is addressed. Two kinds of Sobol-like indices are considered.
Their estimators are built and their asymptotic properties are established. To find an optimal tradeoff
between repetitions and explorations, an error criterion that penalizes bad rankings of the inputs
is considered. A bound is found and minimized under a fixed computing budget. Estimators that
asymptotically achieve the minimal bound are built. Numerical tests are performed.
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