Simulating interactions between land-use and land-cover changes for prospective scenarios with FORESCEM
Résumé
Anticipating socio-environmental impacts of spatial planning strategies is a prerequisite for sustainable development design. Land change models are increasingly employed to evaluate the impacts of spatial planning on land use and land cover (LULC), and their subsequent effects on ecosystem services and environmental resources. This paper presents a process-based modelthe FORecasting landscapE SCEnarios Model (FORESCEM)-designed to spatially simulate future LULC changes based on narrative scenarios developed through participatory or expertdriven approaches. The model enables the assessment of the effects of interactions among LULC changes within human-managed landscapes. Validation results demonstrate the model's capability to replicate both natural and anthropogenic dynamics, effectively simulating trendbased and trend-breaking LULC trajectories under contrasting scenarios.
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