Daily Electricity Consumption Forecasting: A Comparative Study of Neural Network and Radial Basis Function Models - Archive ouverte HAL
Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2024

Daily Electricity Consumption Forecasting: A Comparative Study of Neural Network and Radial Basis Function Models

Résumé

Electricity consumption forecasting stands as a critical research domain within electrical engineering, with myriad of traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence techniques undergoing rigorous examination. This paper is devoted to a comparison of three Machine Learning approaches to surrogate modelling and forecasting of the daily electricity consumption in Tirana, Albania: A Radial Basis Function (RBF) approach, a feed forward Neural Network approach and a Recurrent Neural Network approach. Through meticulous experimentation across four distinct scenarios encompassing variations in training/testing splits, historical data utilization, and hyper parameter optimization, we thoroughly evaluate the performance of each model. Comparative analysis is conducted based on model fit, computational efficiency, and error measurement metrics. Our findings highlight the remarkable performance of the RBF ARX approach, underscoring its effectiveness in accurately forecasting electricity consumption.
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Dates et versions

hal-04745876 , version 1 (22-10-2024)

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Agresa Qosja, Didier Georges, Eralda Gjika, Ligor Nikolla, Arben Cela. Daily Electricity Consumption Forecasting: A Comparative Study of Neural Network and Radial Basis Function Models. CoDIT 2024 - 10th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies, CoDIT 2024 is organized by University of Malta and three major IEEE societies (IEEE Control Systems Society, IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society, and IEEE Robotics and Automation Society) together with the International Federation of Automatic Control (IFAC), Jul 2024, La Vallette, Malta. pp.1963-1968, ⟨10.1109/CoDIT62066.2024.10708348⟩. ⟨hal-04745876⟩
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