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Article Dans Une Revue ICES Journal of Marine Science Année : 2024

Linking climate stressors to ecological processes in ecosystem models, with a case study from the Gulf of Alaska

Meaghan D Bryan
Bridget E Ferriss
Melissa A Haltuch
Owen R Liu
Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna
  • Fonction : Auteur
Szymon Surma

Résumé

As climate stressors are impacting marine ecosystems and fisheries across the world, ecosystem models that incorporate environmental variables are increasingly used to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management. The assumptions around the mechanistic links between climate stressors and the biological processes in these models are important, but the implications for model outcomes of which stressors are captured and how they affect modeled biological processes are seldom explored. Using a whole-ecosystem model (Atlantis) for the Gulf of Alaska, we explore the effects of capturing physical (increased temperature) and biogeochemical (decreased low trophic level productivity) climate stressors, and disentangle the effects of each stressor on the productivity of forage fish, groundfish, and fish-eating seabirds. We then test the effects of alternative model specifications of temperature-driven habitat determination and bioenergetics. Increased temperature resulted in increased weight-at-age and higher natural mortality, while decreased productivity resulted in decreased weight-at-age and higher natural mortality. Model specification of temperature dependence of movement and spawning influenced model outcomes, and decoupling these processes from temperature led to overly optimistic biomass predictions. As the use of ecosystem models to inform fisheries management becomes more operational, we illustrate that the assumptions around the links between climate stressors and ecological processes influence model outcomes.
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Licence : CC BY - Paternité

Dates et versions

hal-04489786 , version 1 (12-03-2024)

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Paternité

Identifiants

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Alberto Rovellini, André E Punt, Meaghan D Bryan, Isaac C Kaplan, Martin W Dorn, et al.. Linking climate stressors to ecological processes in ecosystem models, with a case study from the Gulf of Alaska. ICES Journal of Marine Science, In press, ⟨10.1093/icesjms/fsae002⟩. ⟨hal-04489786⟩
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