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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail (Preprint/Prepublication) Année : 2024

Transparent framework to assess the revision of national climate pledges

Résumé

Parties to the Paris Agreement will revise their Nationally Determined Contributions following the first Global Stocktake concluded in December 2023. To assess the impact of potential future climate pledges, we propose a simple, transparent framework for developing emission and temperature scenarios by country. We show that current pledges with unconditional targets lead to global warming of 1.96 (1.39-2.6)°C by 2100. Further warming could be limited through i) commitment to mid-century net-zero targets for all countries and earlier net-zero targets for developed countries, ii) enhancement of the Global Methane Pledge, and iii) ambitious implementation of the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use. Our analysis further shows that overshooting 1.5°C is unavoidable, even with supplementary climate engineering strategies, suggesting the need for strategies to limit further overshoot and ultimately reduce the warming towards 1.5°C.
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Dates et versions

hal-04432212 , version 1 (01-02-2024)

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Katsumasa Tanaka, Kushal Tibrewal, Philippe Ciais, Olivier Boucher. Transparent framework to assess the revision of national climate pledges. 2024. ⟨hal-04432212⟩
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