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Article Dans Une Revue SN Operations Research Forum Année : 2024

Impact of Weather Factors on Migration Intention Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Résumé

A growing attention in the empirical literature has been paid on the incidence of climate shocks and change on migration decisions. Previous literature leads to different results and uses a multitude of traditional empirical approaches. This paper proposes a tree-based Machine Learning (ML) approach to analyze the role of the weather shocks toward an individual’s intention to migrate in the six agriculture-dependent-economy countries such as Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. We performed several tree-based algorithms (e.g., XGB, Random Forest) using the train-validation-test workflow to build robust and noise-resistant approaches. Then we determine the important features showing in which direction they influence the migration intention. This ML-based estimation accounts for features such as weather shocks captured by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for different timescales and various socioeconomic features/covariates. We find that (i) the weather features improve the prediction performance, although socioeconomic characteristics have more influence on migration intentions, (ii) a country-specific model is necessary, and (iii) the international move is influenced more by the longer timescales of SPEIs while general move (which includes internal move) by that of shorter timescales.
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Dates et versions

hal-04411739 , version 1 (18-03-2024)

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Juhee Bae, John Aoga, Stefanija Veljanoska, Siegfried Nijssen, Pierre Schaus. Impact of Weather Factors on Migration Intention Using Machine Learning Algorithms. SN Operations Research Forum, 2024, Operations Research Forum, 5 (1), pp.8. ⟨10.1007/s43069-023-00271-y⟩. ⟨hal-04411739⟩
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