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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2023

Machine-learning and mechanistic modeling of primary and metastatic breast cancer growth after neoadjuvant targeted therapy

Résumé

Clinical trials involving systemic neoadjuvant treatments in breast cancer aim to shrink tumors prior to surgery while simultaneously allowing for controlled evaluation of biomarkers, toxicity, and suppression of distant (occult) metastatic disease. Yet such trials are rarely preceded by preclinical testing involving surgery. Here we used a mouse model of spontaneous metastasis after surgical removal to develop a predictive mathematical model of neoadjuvant treatment response to sunitinib, a receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor (RTKI). Longitudinal data consisted of measurements of presurgical primary tumor size and postsurgical metastatic burden in 128 mice (104 for model training, 24 for validation), following variable neoadjuvant treatment schedules over a 14-day period. A nonlinear mixed-effects modeling approach was used to quantify inter-animal variability. Machine learning algorithms were applied to investigate the significance of several biomarkers at resection as predictors of individual kinetics. Biomarkers included circulating tumor- and immune-based cells (circulating tumor cells and myeloid-derived suppressor cells) as well as immunohistochemical tumor proteins (CD31 and Ki67). Our simulations showed that neoadjuvant RTKI treatment inhibits primary tumor growth but has little efficacy in preventing (micro)-metastatic disease progression after surgery. Surprisingly, machine-learning algorithms demonstrated only limited predictive power of tested biomarkers on the mathematical parameters. These results suggest that presurgical modeling might be an effective tool to screen biomarkers prior to clinical trial testing. Mathematical modeling combined with artificial intelligence techniques represent a novel platform for integrating preclinical surgical metastasis models in outcome prediction of neoadjuvant treatment.
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hal-04384182 , version 1 (10-01-2024)

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Sébastien Benzekry, Michalis Mastri, Chiara Nicolò, John Ebos. Machine-learning and mechanistic modeling of primary and metastatic breast cancer growth after neoadjuvant targeted therapy. 2023. ⟨hal-04384182⟩
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