Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue PLOS Global Public Health Année : 2023

Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar

Julie D Pourtois
Krti Tallam
  • Fonction : Auteur
Isabel Jones
  • Fonction : Auteur
Elizabeth Hyde
Rado J L Rakotonanahary

Résumé

While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. Highresolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socioeconomic , land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.
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Dates et versions

hal-04334467 , version 1 (11-12-2023)

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Citer

Julie D Pourtois, Krti Tallam, Isabel Jones, Elizabeth Hyde, Andrew J Chamberlin, et al.. Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar. PLOS Global Public Health, 2023, 3 (2), pp.e0001607. ⟨10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607⟩. ⟨hal-04334467⟩
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