Kleene Algebra with Tests (KAT) provides a framework for algebraic equational reasoning about imperative programs. The recent variant Guarded KAT (GKAT) allows to reason on non-probabilistic properties of probabilistic programs. Here we introduce an extension of this framework called approximate GKAT (aGKAT), which equips GKAT with a partially ordered monoid (real numbers) enabling to express satisfaction of (deterministic) properties \textit{except} with a probability up to a certain bound. This allows to represent in equational reasoning `à la KAT' proofs of probabilistic programs based on the union bound, a technique from basic probability theory. We show how a propositional variant of approximate Hoare Logic (aHL), a program logic for union bound, can be soundly encoded in our system aGKAT. We also show with an example that aGKAT is more general than aHL, in the sense that it can prove some probability bounds that aHL cannot.