Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market - Archive ouverte HAL
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2022

Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market

Valérie Mignon
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Yifei Cai
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jamel Saadaoui

Résumé

This paper assesses the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate how their dynamics impact oil demand, supply, and prices over various periods, starting from 1971 to 2019. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model as well as local projections and show that political tensions between the two countries pull down oil demand and raise supply at medium- and long-run horizons. Overall, our findings show that conflicting relationships between these two major players in the oil market may have crucial impacts, such as the development of new strategic partnerships.
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Dates et versions

hal-04159797 , version 1 (12-07-2023)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04159797 , version 1

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Valérie Mignon, Yifei Cai, Jamel Saadaoui. Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market. 2022. ⟨hal-04159797⟩
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