Anomaly Detection on Financial Time Series by Principal Component Analysis and Neural Networks
Résumé
A major concern when dealing with financial time series involving a wide variety of
market risk factors is the presence of anomalies. These induce a miscalibration of the models used to
quantify and manage risk, resulting in potential erroneous risk measures. We propose an approach
that aims to improve anomaly detection in financial time series, overcoming most of the inherent
difficulties. Valuable features are extracted from the time series by compressing and reconstructing
the data through principal component analysis. We then define an anomaly score using a feedforward
neural network. A time series is considered to be contaminated when its anomaly score exceeds a
given cutoff value. This cutoff value is not a hand-set parameter but rather is calibrated as a neural
network parameter throughout the minimization of a customized loss function. The efficiency of the
proposed approach compared to several well-known anomaly detection algorithms is numerically
demonstrated on both synthetic and real data sets, with high and stable performance being achieved
with the PCA NN approach. We show that value-at-risk estimation errors are reduced when the
proposed anomaly detection model is used with a basic imputation approach to correct the anomaly.
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