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Journal Articles SMAI Journal of Computational Mathematics Year : 2022

Recursive Estimation of a Failure Probability for a Lipschitz Function

Abstract

Let g : Ω = [0, 1] d → R denote a Lipschitz function that can be evaluated at each point, but at the price of a heavy computational time. Let X stand for a random variable with values in Ω such that one is able to simulate, at least approximately, according to the restriction of the law of X to any subset of Ω. For example, thanks to Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, this is always possible when X admits a density that is known up to a normalizing constant. In this context, given a deterministic threshold T such that the failure probability p := P(g(X) > T) may be very low, our goal is to estimate the latter with a minimal number of calls to g. In this aim, building on Cohen et al. [9], we propose a recursive and (in a certain sens) optimal algorithm that selects on the fly areas of interest and estimate their respective probabilities.
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Dates and versions

hal-03301765 , version 1 (28-07-2021)
hal-03301765 , version 2 (02-01-2023)

Identifiers

Cite

Lucie Bernard, Albert Cohen, Arnaud Guyader, Florent Malrieu. Recursive Estimation of a Failure Probability for a Lipschitz Function. SMAI Journal of Computational Mathematics, 2022, 8, pp.75-97. ⟨10.5802/smai-jcm.80⟩. ⟨hal-03301765v2⟩
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