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Article Dans Une Revue Geophysical Research Letters Année : 2016

Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño

Résumé

The large peatland carbon stocks in the land use change-affected areas of equatorial Asia are vulnerable to fire. Combining satellite observations of active fire, burned area, and atmospheric concentrations of combustion tracers with a Bayesian inversion, we estimated the amount and variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia over the period 1997-2015. Emissions in 2015 were of 0.51 ± 0.17 Pg carbon-less than half of the emissions from the previous 1997 extreme El Niño, explained by a less acute water deficit. Fire severity could be empirically hindcasted from the cumulative water deficit with a lead time of 1 to 2 months. Based on CMIP5 climate projections and an exponential empirical relationship found between fire carbon emissions and water deficit, we infer a total fire carbon loss ranging from 12 to 25 Pg by 2100 which is a significant positive feedback to climate warming.
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Dates et versions

hal-02922454 , version 1 (17-09-2020)

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Yi Yin, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Guido van Der Werf, Thierry Fanin, et al.. Variability of fire carbon emissions in equatorial Asia and its nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, 2016, 43 (19), pp.10,472-10,479. ⟨10.1002/2016GL070971⟩. ⟨hal-02922454⟩
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