Forcing a dynamic model for oil production and EROI evolution: The Oil Game
Résumé
Since 1940, many attempts to model world oil production have been proposed. Those approach, using increasing complexity, consider the growing and decay of production independently of external, time-varying, causes. It is here proposed to extend the production equation by modelling a dynamic dependency between oil production and its Energy Return On (Energy) Invested (EROI), using Lotka-Volterra equations and to apply the model to all liquid fossil fuels. The model obtained, after comparison with oil extraction and EROI evolution on the period 1960-2010, illustrates the production dynamic and the existence of an external, controlling parameter: the produc-tion/exploration effort which account for the re-investment in the production and exploration processes. The evolution of this parameter provides some possible explanations about the progress of the oil shocks and also some possible explanations about the peak prediction issues of the classical Hubbert model. Studying this evolution also suggests an attempt to control the oil production in order to obtain a linear time evolution on the period 1960-2010 through an apparently linearly growing production/exploration effort: the oil game. Since the end of the oil shocks, this control has been slightly inflected for the first time around 2000-2005, what could explain the evolution in fossil fuel investment from that time. Unfortunately, in order to keep a linearly growing production at long time scale, the production effort has actually to evolve exponentially: the linear growth is in fact a short time scale approximation of the control required to play the oil game. Therefore the production effort will require more frequent and stronger inflection in the future, what suggests more frequent and stronger recession period, since the economy seems strongly correlated to the production effort, as an oil price chart comparison with the production effort suggests. Finally, playing the oil game until the end would lead to a peak of all liquid fossil fuels between 2080 and 2090, when EROI=1, followed by a quick collapse of oil production. Hence production will be strongly asymmetric regarding the peak, contrary to the prediction suggested by Hubbert's model.
Domaines
Milieux et Changements globauxOrigine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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