Fire risk modulation by long-term dynamics in land cover and dominant forest type in Eastern and Central Europe
Angelica Feurdean
(1)
,
Boris Vannière
(2)
,
Walter Finsinger
(3)
,
Dan Warren
(1)
,
Simon Connor
,
Matthew Forrest
(4)
,
Johan Liakka
(5)
,
Andrei Panait
(6)
,
Christian Werner
(7)
,
Maja Andrič
(8)
,
Premysl Bobek
(9)
,
Vachel Carter
(10)
,
Basil A.S. Davis
(11)
,
Andrei-Cosmin Diaconu
(6)
,
Elisabeth Dietze
(12)
,
Ingo Feeser
(13)
,
Gabriela Florescu
(6, 10)
,
Mariusz Gałka
(14)
,
Thomas Giesecke
(15)
,
Susanne Jahns
(16)
,
Eva Jamrichová
,
Katarzyna Kajukało
(17)
,
Jed O Kaplan
(18)
,
Monika Karpińska-Kołaczek
(17)
,
Piotr Kołaczek
(17)
,
Petr Kuneš
(10)
,
Dimitry Kupriyanov
,
Mariusz Lamentowicz
(19)
,
Carsten Lemmen
(20)
,
Enikö Magyari
(21, 22, 23)
,
Katarzyna Marcisz
(19)
,
Elena Marinova
(24)
,
Aidin Niamir
(1)
,
Elena Novenko
,
Milena Obremska
(25)
,
Anna Pędziszewska
(26)
,
Mirjam Pfeiffer
(27)
,
Anneli Poska
(28)
,
Manfred Rösch
,
Michal Słowiński
(29)
,
Miglė Stančikaitė
(30)
,
Marta Szal
(31)
,
Joanna Święta-Musznicka
(26)
,
Ioan Tanţău
,
Martin Theuerkauf
(32)
,
Spassimir Tonkov
(33)
,
Orsolya Valkó
,
Juri Vassiljev
(10)
,
Siim Veski
(34)
,
Ildiko Vincze
(23, 21, 22)
,
Agnieszka Wacnik
(35)
,
Julian Wiethold
(36, 37)
,
Thomas Hickler
(1)
1
SBiK-F -
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
2 LCE - Laboratoire Chrono-environnement (UMR 6249)
3 UMR ISEM - Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
4 Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
5 NERSC - Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen]
6 UBB - Babes-Bolyai University [Cluj-Napoca]
7 Universität Heidelberg [Heidelberg] = Heidelberg University
8 ZRC SAZU - Institut za arheologijo
9 IB / CAS - Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences
10 UK - Univerzita Karlova [Praha, Česká republika] = Charles University [Prague, Czech Republic]
11 Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics [Lausanne]
12 GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
13 Institut fûr Ur- und Frühgeschichte
14 UAM - Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu = Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań
15 Department of Palynology and Climate Dynamics
16 Brandenburgisches Landesamt für Denkmalpflege und Archäologisches Landesmuseum
17 Institute of Geoecology and Geoinformation
18 ARVE
19 Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Monitoring, Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences
20 GKSS - Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
21 MTA-MTM-ELTE Research Group for Paleontology
22 GINOP Sustainable Ecosystem Research Group
23 Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography
24 Landesdenkmalamt
25 Institute of Geological Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences
26 Department of Plant Ecology, Gdansk University
27 BIK-F - Senckenberg biodiversität und klima forschungszentrum
28 Institute of Geology
29 Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences
30 Nature Research Centre [Vilnius]
31 Department of Palaeobotany, Institute of Biology
32 Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology
33 Софийски университет = Sofia University
34 Institute of Geology at Tallinn
35 Department of Palaeobotany, W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences
36 Inrap - Institut national de recherches archéologiques préventives
37 ARTeHiS - Archéologie, Terre, Histoire, Sociétés [Dijon]
2 LCE - Laboratoire Chrono-environnement (UMR 6249)
3 UMR ISEM - Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
4 Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
5 NERSC - Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen]
6 UBB - Babes-Bolyai University [Cluj-Napoca]
7 Universität Heidelberg [Heidelberg] = Heidelberg University
8 ZRC SAZU - Institut za arheologijo
9 IB / CAS - Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences
10 UK - Univerzita Karlova [Praha, Česká republika] = Charles University [Prague, Czech Republic]
11 Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics [Lausanne]
12 GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
13 Institut fûr Ur- und Frühgeschichte
14 UAM - Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu = Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań
15 Department of Palynology and Climate Dynamics
16 Brandenburgisches Landesamt für Denkmalpflege und Archäologisches Landesmuseum
17 Institute of Geoecology and Geoinformation
18 ARVE
19 Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Monitoring, Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences
20 GKSS - Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
21 MTA-MTM-ELTE Research Group for Paleontology
22 GINOP Sustainable Ecosystem Research Group
23 Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography
24 Landesdenkmalamt
25 Institute of Geological Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences
26 Department of Plant Ecology, Gdansk University
27 BIK-F - Senckenberg biodiversität und klima forschungszentrum
28 Institute of Geology
29 Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences
30 Nature Research Centre [Vilnius]
31 Department of Palaeobotany, Institute of Biology
32 Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology
33 Софийски университет = Sofia University
34 Institute of Geology at Tallinn
35 Department of Palaeobotany, W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences
36 Inrap - Institut national de recherches archéologiques préventives
37 ARTeHiS - Archéologie, Terre, Histoire, Sociétés [Dijon]
Angelica Feurdean
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 770638
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2497-3005
Boris Vannière
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 170991
- IdHAL : boris-vanniere
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6779-6053
- IdRef : 22094850X
Walter Finsinger
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 19989
- IdHAL : walter-finsinger
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8297-0574
- IdRef : 224248308
Simon Connor
- Fonction : Auteur
Vachel Carter
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 791846
- ORCID : 0000-0002-0610-0091
Elisabeth Dietze
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1035658
Gabriela Florescu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 793583
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7605-9557
Eva Jamrichová
- Fonction : Auteur
Petr Kuneš
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 791847
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9605-8204
Dimitry Kupriyanov
- Fonction : Auteur
Mariusz Lamentowicz
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 761855
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0429-1530
Katarzyna Marcisz
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 773164
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2655-9729
Elena Novenko
- Fonction : Auteur
Manfred Rösch
- Fonction : Auteur
Ioan Tanţău
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 793585
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7197-916X
Martin Theuerkauf
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 792390
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4033-3040
Orsolya Valkó
- Fonction : Auteur
Julian Wiethold
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 9893
- IdHAL : julian-wiethold
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6092-7009
- IdRef : 119085445
Thomas Hickler
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 765106
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4668-7552
Résumé
Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge forunderstanding fire-climate-vegetation interactions is to quantify the effect vegetation has in mediating fire regime. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover and dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass burned in temperate and boreo-nemoral regions of Central and Eastern Europe over the past 12 ka BP years. We used an extensive data set of Holocene pollen and sedimentary charcoal records, in combination with climate simulations and novel statistical modelling. Biomass burned was highest during the early Holocene and lowest during the mid Holocene in all three ecoregions, but diverged more markedly over the past 3-4 ka BP. Although the climate was an important driver of fire hazard during the warm and dry early Holocene, tree cover was consistently the strongest predictor of past biomass burning. In temperate forests, biomass burned was high at ~ 45% tree cover and decreased strongly towards 60% tree cover. In needleleaf dominated forests, biomass burned was highest at ~60-65% tree cover and abruptly declined at >65% tree cover. Biomass burned also increased when arable lands and grasslands reached ~15-20%, although this relationship was highly dynamic depending on land use intensity throughout ignition and fuel type and availability. Our observations cover the full range of Holocene climate variability and land cover changes and illustrates that percentages of land cover is a key predictor of the probability of fire occurrence over timescales of centuries to millennia. We suggest that long-term fire risk may be effectively reduced through land cover management, given that land cover has controlled fire regimes under the dynamic climates of theHolocene.
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