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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2017

Event Date Model : A Robust Bayesian Tool for Chronology Building

Résumé

We propose a robust event date model aiming to estimate the date of a target event by the combination of individual dates obtained from archaeological artifacts assumed to be contemporaneous. These dates are affected by errors of different types: laboratory and calibration curve errors, irreducible errors related to contaminations, taphonomic disturbances, etc, hence the possible presence of outliers. This modeling, based on a hierarchical Bayesian statistical approach, provides a very simple way to automatically penalize outlying data without having to remove them from the dataset. Prior information on the individual irreducible errors is introduced using a uniform shrinkage density with minimal assumptions about Bayesian parameters. We show that the event date model is more robust than models implemented in BCal or Ox-Cal, although it generally yields less precise credibility intervals. The model is extended in the case of stratigraphic sequences which involve several events with temporal order constraints (relative dating), or with duration, hiatus constraints. Calculations are based on MCMC numerical techniques and can be performed using the ChronoModel software which is freeware, open source and cross-platform. Features of the software are presented in Vibet et al. (2016). We finally compare our prior on event dates implemented in ChronoModel with the prior in BCal and OxCal which involves supplementary parameters defined as boundaries to phases or sequences.
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Dates et versions

hal-01643509 , version 1 (21-11-2017)

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Philippe Lanos, Anne Philippe. Event Date Model : A Robust Bayesian Tool for Chronology Building. 2017. ⟨hal-01643509⟩
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