Spatial Validation of Land Use Change Models Using Multiple Assessment Techniques: A Case Study of Transition Potential Models
Résumé
Using land use and cover change (LUCC) models
for the urban growth planning, environmental assessment, and
decision-making needs the establishment of an appropriate
level of confidence in their performance. The objective of this
research is to explore the importance of using multiple assess-
ment techniques in order to fairly evaluate the performance of
land use models. An application is conducted by using the
Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability (LCM)
which is an empirical and transition potential model. LCM is
applied to model the agricultural to developed areas transition
in Rennes metropolitan area (France). The land demand is
estimated using the Markov Chain model; whereas, the tran-
sition potential map is implemented using the Multi-Layer
Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) method based on historical
changes and driving variables. The model performance is
assessed based on a variety of the most commonly used val-
idation techniques. At the study area level, the correctness and
disagreement analysis shows that LCM performs better at
predicting the amount than the allocation of developed areas.
Additionally, landscape metrics reveal that LCM tends to pre-
dict a fragmented urban form, which seems evident because of
the large number of the individual urban patches. At the mu-
nicipality level, the error budget analysis shows that the model
performance, which varies highly between different subareas,
needs to be improved. Moreover, the cross-tabulation between
the transition potential map and both the observed and the
predicted agricultural to developed areas transitions reveals
that the order of the transition potential values does not per-
fectly fit the observed change; whereas, the predicted change
is not solely limited to areas with high potential.