Spectral likelihood expansions for Bayesian inference
Résumé
A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability
density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal
polynomials. From this spectral likelihood expansion all statistical quantities of interest can be calculated
semi-analytically. The posterior is formally represented as the product of a reference density and a linear
combination of polynomial basis functions. Both the model evidence and the posterior moments are related
to the expansion coefficients. This formulation avoids Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and allows one
to make use of linear least squares instead. The pros and cons of spectral Bayesian inference are discussed
and demonstrated on the basis of simple applications from classical statistics and inverse modeling.
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