Reliability analysis of high-dimensional models using low-rank tensor approximations
Résumé
Engineering and applied sciences use models of increasing complexity to simulate the behavior
of manufactured and physical systems. Propagation of uncertainties from the input to a response
quantity of interest through such models may become intractable in cases when a single simulation
is time demanding. Particularly challenging is the reliability analysis of systems represented
by computationally costly models, because of the large number of model evaluations that are
typically required to estimate small probabilities of failure. In this paper, we demonstrate the
potential of a newly emerged meta-modeling technique known as low-rank tensor approximations
to address this limitation. This technique is especially promising for high-dimensional problems
because: (i) the number of unknowns in the generic functional form of the meta-model grows only
linearly with the input dimension and (ii) such approximations can be constructed by relying on
a series of minimization problems of small size independent of the input dimension. In example
applications involving finite-element models pertinent to structural mechanics and heat conduction,
low-rank tensor approximations built with polynomial bases are found to outperform the
popular sparse polynomial chaos expansions in the estimation of tail probabilities when small
experimental designs are used. It should be emphasized that contrary to methods particularly
targeted to reliability analysis, the meta-modeling approach also provides a full probabilistic description
of the model response, which can be used to estimate any statistical measure of interest.
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