Reduction of the uncertainties in the water level-discharge relation of a 1D hydraulic model in the context of operational flood forecasting
Résumé
This paper presents a data-driven hydrodynamic simulator based on the 1-D hydraulic solver dedicated
to flood forecasting with lead time of an hour up to 24 h. The goal of the study is to reduce uncertainties
in the hydraulic model and thus provide more reliable simulations and forecasts in real time for operational
use by the national hydrometeorological flood forecasting center in France. Previous studies have
shown that sequential assimilation of water level or discharge data allows to adjust the inflows to the
hydraulic network resulting in a significant improvement of the discharge while leaving the water level
state imperfect. Two strategies are proposed here to improve the water level-discharge relation in the
model. At first, a modeling strategy consists in improving the description of the river bed geometry using
topographic and bathymetric measurements. Secondly, an inverse modeling strategy proposes to locally
correct friction coefficients in the river bed and the flood plain through the assimilation of in situ water
level measurements. This approach is based on an Extended Kalman filter algorithm that sequentially
assimilates data to infer the upstream and lateral inflows at first and then the friction coefficients. It
provides a time varying correction of the hydrological boundary conditions and hydraulic parameters.
The merits of both strategies are demonstrated on the Marne catchment in France for eight validation
flood events and the January 2004 flood event is used as an illustrative example throughout the paper.
The Nash–Sutcliffe criterion for water level is improved from 0.135 to 0.832 for a 12-h forecast lead time
with the data assimilation strategy. These developments have been implemented at the SAMA SPC (local
flood forecasting service in the Haute-Marne French department) and used for operational forecast since
2013. They were shown to provide an efficient tool for evaluating flood risk and to improve the flood early
warning system. Complementary with the deterministic forecast of the hydraulic state, the estimation of
an uncertainty range is given relying on off-line and on-line diagnosis. The possibilities to further extend
the control vector while limiting the computational cost and equifinality problem are finally discussed.
Domaines
Milieux et Changements globauxOrigine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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