Inference procedures to estimate potential based movement models in ecology
Résumé
This paper proposes a statistical analysis of movement data in ecology using partially observed stochastic differential equations. Usually, in movement ecology, parameters of these models are estimated using approximate
maximum likelihood procedures based on the Euler-Maruyama discretization.
However, GPS sampling rate in ecology might not be large
enough to ensure the stability and convergence of the Euler based estimates. To
our best knowledge, there is no practical study to assess the performance of the
Euler Maruyama method to estimate movement ecology models compared to other
inference procedures for stochastic differential equations. In this paper, we
propose such a practical study by comparing the Euler method with the Ozaki
linearization method, an adaptive high order
Gaussian approximation method and a Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization approach based on the Exact Algorithm. The performance of these methods
are assessed using a new potential based stochastic differential equation where
the drift is given as the gradient of a mixture of attractive zones, which are
of main interest in ecology and fisheries science. It is shown both on
simulated data and actual fishing vessels data that the Euler method performs worse
than the other procedures for non high frequency sampling schemes. We also show,
on this model, that the other discretization based methods are quite robust and perform in a
similar way as the exact method.
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