Calculating nuclear accident probabilities from empirical frequencies
Résumé
Since there is no authoritative, comprehensive and public historical record of nuclear power plant accidents, we reconstructed a nuclear accident data set from peer-reviewed and other literature. We found that, in a sample of five random years, the worldwide historical frequency of a nuclear major accident, defined as an INES level 7 event, is 14 %. The probability of at least one nuclear accident rated at level ≥4 on the INES scale is 67 %. These numbers are subject to uncertainties because of the fuzziness of the definition of a nuclear accident. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
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prob-acc-nuc-2014-04-10-standalone.pdf (356.2 Ko)
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Figure.R (2.13 Ko)
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accidents.csv (6.15 Ko)
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reactors_in_operation.txt (522 B)
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tables.R (2.93 Ko)
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| Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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| Format | Autre |
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| Format | Autre |
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| Format | Autre |
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| Format | Autre |
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