On a Poissonian Change-Point Model with Variable Jump Size
Résumé
A model of Poissonian observation having a jump (change-point) in the
intensity function is considered. Two cases are studied. The first one
corresponds to the situation when the jump size converges to a non-zero limit,
while in the second one the limit is zero. The limiting likelihood ratios in
these two cases are quite different. In the first case, like in the case of a
fixed jump size, the normalized likelihood ratio converges to a log Poisson
process. In the second case, the normalized likelihood ratio converges to a
log Wiener process, and so, the statistical problems of parameter estimation
and hypotheses testing are asymptotically equivalent in this case to the well
known problems of change-point estimation and testing for the model of a
signal in white Gaussian noise. The properties of the maximum likelihood and
Bayesian estimators, as well as those of the general likelihood ratio, Wald's
and Bayesian tests are deduced form the convergence of normalized likelihood
ratios. The convergence of the moments of the estimators is also established.
The obtained theoretical results are illustrated by numerical simulations.
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