We describe a generative Bayesian model of tactical attacks in strategy games, which can be used both to predict attacks and to take tactical decisions. This model is designed to easily integrate and merge information from other (probabilistic) estimations and heuristics. In particular, it handles uncertainty in enemy units' positions as well as their probable tech tree. We claim that learning, being it supervised or through reinforcement, adapts to skewed data sources. We evaluated our approach on StarCraft 1 : the parameters are learned on a new (freely available) dataset of game states, deterministically re-created from replays, and the whole model is evaluated for prediction in realistic conditions. It is also the tactical decision-making component of our StarCraft AI competition bot.