Spatial modelling of small mammal distributions in relation to parasite transmission and long-term landscape change in western China
Résumé
This research investigates the spatial distributions of small mammal species which act as intermediate host vectors for the parasitic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis which causes a significant burden of human disease in western China. Small mammal distributions are modelled in relation to landscape characteristics derived from Landsat TM and ETM+ datasets. Statistical models are used to identify the landscape variables influencing small mammal spatial distributions, and to describe the nature of these relationships. They are then used predictively to determine probable small mammal distributions over large areas. Assessment of landscape change over a twenty-four year period, and its impact on small mammal communities are modelled. Results indicate that Ochotona distributions are significantly related to the spatial distribution of the degraded grassland habitat. Long-term landscape change analysis showed that large scale landscape degradation has occurred at the Serxu site between 1977 and 2001, increasing the area of degraded grassland, and the probability of small mammal presence. Probability maps of small mammal distributions are produced, with potentially significant applications in the development of future disease control programmes