Contributions à la calibration d'algorithmes d'apprentissage : Validation-croisée et détection de ruptures
Résumé
The present manuscript mainly focus on cross-validation procedures (and in particular on leave-p-out (LpO)),
describing its practical aspects as well as new strategies leading to non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees on its
statistical performance (concentration inequalities, oracle inequalities). As a privileged application, cross-validation
is also used to address the multiple change-points detection problem in the off-line context. This problem is then
tackled in a more general framework by means of reproducing kernels and the model selection paradigm.
After introducing the cross-validation procedures in Chapter 1, ongoing strategies allowing us to efficiently
compute cross-validation estimators are detailed in Chapter 2. In particular several of them yield closed-form
expressions for the LpO estimator, which considerably reduces the computational cost. Such closed-form expressions
have been already derived in density estimation with projection and kernel estimators, and with k-nearest neighbors
estimators in the regression and binary classification contexts.
Chapter 3 discusses the statistical properties of the cross-validation estimators (used as risk estimators) in
terms of bias, variance, and mean squared error. For instance among cross-validation estimators, it is established
that the LpO one enjoys the lowest variance for a given test set cardinality. The leave-one-out (L1O) estimator
is also proved to be asymptotically optimal in terms of mean squared error in density estimation with projection
estimators.
Several approaches leading to concentration inequalities of the LpO estimator around its expectation are dis-
cussed in Chapter 4. A direct approach relying on the combination of closed-form expressions and the classical
concentration inequalities of Bernstein and Talagrand is first exposed in the density estimation context. A more
general approach is then described which exploits the link between the LpO estimator and U-statistics. Its main
underlying idea is to deduce exponential concentration results for the LpO estimator from moment inequalities.
The derivation of the preliminary results also involve the stability of the used learning algorithm.
The important question of model/statiscal algorithm selection is addressed in Chapter 5 in the particular case
of density estimation. The optimality of the LpO-based model selection procedure is proved under some condi-
tions both in the estimation purpose—by means of a non-asymptotic oracle inequality—and in the identification
purpose—through a model consistency result.
Cross-validation is then used to tackle the multiple change-points detection problem in the off-line setting, where
the variance is allowed to vary along the time (heteroscedastic setting). Chapter 6 summarizes the conclusions
drawn from theoretical as well as empirical results about the behavior of cross-validation procedures. In particular,
these conclusions lead us to suggest new model selection procedures relying on cross-validation. At the price of
a higher computational cost, these procedures automatically take into account changes arising in the variance for
instance, which improves the statistical performance. The more general question of detecting changes arising the
full distribution of the observations (and not only in the mean) is also addressed by means of reproducing kernels.
A new model selection procedure is designed that is based on a penalty derived in the reproducing kernel Hilbert
space framework. Its non-asymptotic performance is quantified through an oracle inequality with high probability.
Numerous aspects of the new procedure are also empirically assessed in the empirical study. For instance, the
results illustrate that the chosen kernel clearly influences the final performance.
Finally the manuscript ends with Chapter 7 highlighting several challenging perspectives which could give rise
to important improvements both on the practical and theoretical sides.
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