Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2026

Data-driven airline passenger flight supply comparison with optimal transport theory

Résumé

This study presents an optimal transport (OT) framework to analyze airline supply in a pairwise manner, with an emphasis on strategic similarity and competitive intensity. By representing route-level supply as probability distributions and defining adapted cost structures, we develop a flexible approach to build comparative indices between airlines. We discuss three applications: route strategic positioning, competitive intensity, and operational cost. Applied to European domestic airlines, these indices reveal that mainline carriers exhibit greater strategic similarity due to their extensive networks, and low-cost carriers experience higher competitive intensity because of the geographic proximity of their routes. Full-service and low-cost carriers differ notably in operational strategies regarding frequency allocation and flight length choices. Compared with traditional multimarket contact (MMC) measures, the OT-based approach provides an interpretable, continuous metric that incorporates partial market substitutability through airport catchment areas. The framework can potentially be generalized to other transport systems, providing a robust methodological tool for measuring transporter competition, network structural changes, and strategic similarity across spatially distributed supply networks.

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hal-05505239 , version 1 (11-02-2026)

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  • HAL Id : hal-05505239 , version 1

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Qian LIU, Paul Rochet, Chantal Roucolle. Data-driven airline passenger flight supply comparison with optimal transport theory. 2026. ⟨hal-05505239⟩
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