Longevity Collapse in Dolphins: A Growing Conservation Concern in the Bay of Biscay
Résumé
Marine megafauna populations face global decline from human impacts, making early detection of demographic tipping points essential for effective conservation. Traditional viability analyses rely on Capture-Mark-Recapture data, logistically impractical for highly mobile pelagic cetaceans. Stranding data provide an alternative to conventional monitoring. This study presents the first evidence of declining viability in the most abundant cetacean of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, the common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in the Bay of Biscay. Using a novel cross-sectional framework with stratified random sampling, we analyzed age-at-death data from 759 specimens collected between 1997 and 2019. Female longevity declined dramatically from 24 to 17 years, corresponding to a 2.4% reduction in population growth rate. This demographic decline highlights the Bay of Biscay as a demographic sink despite stable abundance estimates. Our findings demonstrate that stranding data can provide acute demographic signals for wide-ranging cetacean species, offering critical early warning indicators for proactive conservation management.
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