COLLAPSE THROUGH CONTRADICTED RESILIENCE : Political Instability, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Mali and the Sahel
EFFONDREMENT PAR RÉSILIENCE CONTRARIÉE : Instabilité politique, capital humain et croissance économique au Mali et dans le Sahel
Résumé
This article examines the relationship between human capital, political instability, and economic growth in Mali (2000–2023), with comparative evidence from Burkina Faso, Niger, and Senegal. The methodology relies on ARDL, VECM, and panel ARDL/PMG models, supported by stationarity tests (ADF, PP), robustness diagnostics, and bootstrap impulse responses. The main contribution lies in the construction of a Contradicted Resilience Index (CRI), which combines external dependence (FDI, aid), institutional fragility, and weak productive diversification. The results show that health spending has a positive but conditional effect, education yields ambiguous returns in unstable contexts, and instability acts as a structural barrier to growth. Extractive FDI sustains short-term resilience without fostering structural transformation, while Senegal, with greater stability, succeeds in better valorizing its human capital. Finally, the CRI magnifies the impact of political shocks on growth, providing empirical validation of the hypothesis of “collapse through contradicted resilience.” JEL Codes: O11; O15; O43; C32; H52.