Article Dans Une Revue One Earth Année : 2025

Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge

Robin D Lamboll
  • Fonction : Auteur
Narasinha J Shurpali
  • Fonction : Auteur
Katsumasa Tanaka
  • Fonction : Auteur
David Wårlind
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sebastian Westermann
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yi Xi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Wenxin Zhang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yuan Zhang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Dan Zhu
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires limiting future carbon emissions, yet current policies make temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target likely. The potential climate feedback from destabilizing peatlands, storing large amounts of carbon, remains poorly quantified. Using the reduced-complexity Earth System Model OSCAR with an integrated peat carbon module, we found that across various overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed 1.5°C–2.5°C, northern peatlands exhibit net positive feedback, amplifying the overshoot challenge. Warming increases peatlands’ net carbon uptake, but this is largely offset by higher methane emissions. We estimated that for each 1°C increase in peak warming, the positive feedback from peatlands decreases the remaining carbon budget by 37 GtCO2 (22–48 GtCO2). If the 1.5°C temperature target is exceeded, peatlands would increase carbon removal requirement by about 40 GtCO2 (16–60 GtCO2) (8.6%). Our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for northern peatlands for estimating climate feedbacks, especially under overshoot scenarios.

Mots clés

Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
75a971ae-93ea-6103-0612-96ba97008997.pdf (2.91 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Publication financée par une institution
Licence

Dates et versions

hal-05269010 , version 1 (19-09-2025)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Biqing Zhu, Chunjing Qiu, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Robin D Lamboll, et al.. Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge. One Earth, 2025, 8 (8), pp.101353. ⟨10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101353⟩. ⟨hal-05269010⟩
147 Consultations
99 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

  • More