Article Dans Une Revue Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics Année : 2025

A Mathematical Model of Cardiovascular Disease Dynamics Incorporating Personal Risk Factors

Résumé

Cardiovascular disease pose a significant global health challenge, demanding innovative approaches for prevention and control. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide as it affects people of all ages, sexes, ethnicities and socioeconomic levels. However, the disease can largely be prevented by leading a healthy lifestyle. In this study, a deterministic mathematical model for cardiovascular disease incorporating personal risk factors was developed and analyzed. The model incorporates lifestyle modifications as key components, recognizing their impact on Cardiovascular disease risk. Stability analysis of the model showed that the disease free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable whenever R0 < 1. The endemic equilibrium exist and is locally asymptotically stable whenever R0 > 1. Numerical simulation of the model highlights a critical threshold behavior, when τ crosses approximately 0.63 the point where R0 = 1, the system transitions from disease elimination to endemic persistence. This threshold is derived from the model’s parameters, emphasizing that, controlling personal risk factors below this critical value can prevent the disease from becoming endemic.

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Dates et versions

hal-05114574 , version 1 (16-06-2025)

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Jacinta M Mutwiwa. A Mathematical Model of Cardiovascular Disease Dynamics Incorporating Personal Risk Factors. Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics, 2025, 27 (6), pp.74-83. ⟨10.9734/ajpas/2025/v27i6768⟩. ⟨hal-05114574⟩
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