Chapitre D'ouvrage Année : 2025

Multiscale and Multi-Temporal Simulation of Change of Urban Structures in the Subarctic East Siberian Metropolis of Yakutsk

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Abstract In the last twenty years, the Metropolis of Yakutsk has experienced significant changes characterised by intense urban growth, densification, and urban structure changes in a complex geographical environment: extremely low temperature during six to seven months, impacts of permafrost dynamics and relative melting, seasonal exposure to ice breakup on the suburban areas. The urban structure and land-use changes conditioned by the urban growth and environmental impacts are analysed at two geographic scales: the meso-urban level with the use of the Landsat-5 TM, Landsat-8 OLI, and Sentinel-2 MSI satellites images covering the period from 2010 to 2020; and at the regional level with the DMSP-OLS PL (1995–2013) and VIIRS-DNB (2015–2020) sensors. The recognition of the urban structures and land use transformations at both scales are based on the use of the combined machine learning data processing. The simulations of the urban structures and land use evolutions to 2030 at the meso-urban and regional scales by Markov chain cellular automata give comparable results of the future trends of the Yakutsk metropolis: reduction of vegetation, forests areas (due to forest fires) and agriculture zones; the increase of bare soil, water surfaces and new urban areas.

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hal-05015617 , version 1 (01-04-2025)

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Sébastien Gadal, Mounir Oukhattar, Jūratė Kamičaitytė, Moisei Zakharov, Walid Ouerghemmi, et al.. Multiscale and Multi-Temporal Simulation of Change of Urban Structures in the Subarctic East Siberian Metropolis of Yakutsk. Małgorzata Hanzl; Anna Agata Kantarek; Artur Zaguła; Łukasz Musiaka; Tomasz Figlus. Urban Morphology versus Urban Redevelopment and Revitalisation, Springer Nature Switzerland, pp.455-476, 2025, The Urban Book Series, 978-3-031-77751-6. ⟨10.1007/978-3-031-77752-3_23⟩. ⟨hal-05015617⟩
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