Analysis of the Renewable Energy Generation Capability for Attending a National Renovation Fleet Through Ethanol-Cell Electric Vehicles in a South American Market
Résumé
The renewal of fossil-fuel vehicles by electric vehicles (EVs) is a global trend for the coming years. In Brazil, a law project prohibits the sale of fossil-fuel vehicles in 2030. However, Brazil faces challenges to meet the future demand for electricity, generated by the massive use of EVs. One of the state-of-the-art technological solutions is the ethanol-cell EVs. It is ideal because the country has a significant production of ethanol (hydro and anhydrous). Therefore, this chapter aimed to investigate the physical feasibility (in terms of productivity, climate conditions, and available areas) of sugarcane plantations (the most productive raw material for ethanol production) to meet estimated future electricity demands of ethanol-cell EVs. Based on big data between 2016 and 2020, it was applied the Slack-Based Measure (SBM) Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to measure the relative efficiency of 73 productive micro-regions. Then, future demand scenarios were projected. And the possibility of replacing pasture areas with sugarcane plantations was investigated. The results showed which macro-regions, states, and micro-regions are more efficient. Therefore, they should be the focus of investments for electricity generation and benchmarks (at regional and national levels). Furthermore, the possibility of a conflict between the need to generate electricity to supply EVs and the need to produce food and protect environmentally sensitive areas (e.g., the Amazon Forest) was highlighted. Policymakers must consider the complexity of this context before fostering green power sources. Finally, once this chapter is a kick-off of the discussion about the theme, future research paths are suggested.