Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty - Archive ouverte HAL
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail (Working Paper) Année : 2024

Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty

Anastasiia Antonova
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1433877
Mykhailo Matvieiev
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1401221
Céline Poilly
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1042090

Résumé

Endogenous uncertainty acts as an aggregate-demand amplification mechanism of supply shocks. Using U.S. data, we first stress that taking into account time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty leads to a significantly stronger recession and less inflationary pressures, in response to a TFP shock. In addition, we show empirically that households' misperception increases during recessions. To rationalize these findings, we build a noisy-information New-Keynesian model where the precision of signals increases with economic activity. Pro-cyclical precision of information gives rise to an amplified precautionary saving behavior. A fullfledged model parametrized by using consumer-based forecast errors generates a demandlike recession of supply shock.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
wp_2024_-_nr_27.pdf (557.76 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Dates et versions

hal-04757868 , version 1 (29-10-2024)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-04757868 , version 1

Citer

Anastasiia Antonova, Mykhailo Matvieiev, Céline Poilly. Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty. 2024. ⟨hal-04757868⟩
0 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Partager

More