Better two eyes than one: A synthesis classification of exchange rate regimes
Résumé
This paper proposes a new de facto classification of exchange rate regimes, the synthesis classification.
This framework offers several advantages over existing de facto classifications. First, it
provides a unified framework that integrates the most divergent classifications, the RR and LYS
classifications, not only achieving broader coverage but also encompassing a wide spectrum of
exchange regimes. Second, it fits better with the historical developments of exchange rate regimes
in the post-Bretton Woods era. Among others, it brings a nuanced perspective on the so-called
hollowing-out hypothesis by showing that the evolution of de facto regimes —especially in
emerging economies since the late 1990s— has essentially involved a shift toward more tightly
“managed” intermediate regimes, rather than a move away from them. As an illustration of the
insightfulness of our classification, we empirically revisit the relationship between currency crises
and exchange rate regimes. Our classification not only associates a higher probability of currency
crisis with both intermediate and floating regimes, but also shows better statistical performances
in predicting currency crises compared to other classifications.
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