Risk premium, price of risk and expected volatility in the oil market: Evidence from survey data - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Energy Economics Année : 2024

Risk premium, price of risk and expected volatility in the oil market: Evidence from survey data

Georges Prat
  • Fonction : Auteur
Remzi Uctum
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Résumé

This paper contributes to the literature on crude oil risk premiums by providing ex-ante measures of these premiums using survey oil price expectations over an extended period. These ex-ante premiums are uncorrelated with ex-post premiums commonly used in existing studies, whereas they are more relevant as they directly influence investors' decision-making. Utilizing a portfolio choice model, we explain the ex-ante premium as the product of the price of risk and the expected variance, both varying over time and across horizons. We estimate this relationship using a multivariate state-space framework. From our estimated risk prices we find, on average, that investors exhibit risk-seeking behavior in the short term and risk aversion in the long term. It follows that the term structure of oil risk premiums are prominently upward-sloping. Additionally, consistent with the prospect theory, investors are found to be predominantly risk averse in a context of expected gains and risk-seeking in a context of expected losses. Finally, the dynamics of risk prices are shown to be driven by identifiable economic, financial, and oil market-related factors.
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Dates et versions

hal-04738519 , version 1 (15-10-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Georges Prat, Remzi Uctum. Risk premium, price of risk and expected volatility in the oil market: Evidence from survey data. Energy Economics, 2024, pp.107930. ⟨https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107930⟩. ⟨hal-04738519⟩
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