G6-1.5K-SAI: a new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment integrating recent advances in solar radiation modification studies - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Geoscientific Model Development Année : 2024

G6-1.5K-SAI: a new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment integrating recent advances in solar radiation modification studies

Daniele Visioni
Alan Robock
Jim Haywood
Matthew Henry
Simone Tilmes
Douglas Macmartin
Ben Kravitz
Sarah Doherty
  • Fonction : Auteur
John Moore
  • Fonction : Auteur
Chris Lennard
Shingo Watanabe
  • Fonction : Auteur
Helene Muri
Ulrike Niemeier
Olivier Boucher
Abu Syed
  • Fonction : Auteur
Temitope Egbebiyi
Roland Séférian
Ilaria Quaglia
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Abstract. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has proposed multiple model experiments during phases 5 and 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), with the latest set of model experiments proposed in 2015. With phase 7 of CMIP in preparation and with multiple efforts ongoing to better explore the potential space of outcomes for different solar radiation modifications (SRMs) both in terms of deployment strategies and scenarios and in terms of potential impacts, the GeoMIP community has identified the need to propose and conduct a new experiment that could serve as a bridge between past iterations and future CMIP7 experiments. Here we report the details of such a proposed experiment, named G6-1.5K-SAI, to be conducted with the current generation of scenarios and models from CMIP6 and clarify the reasoning behind many of the new choices introduced. Namely, compared to the CMIP6 GeoMIP scenario G6sulfur, we decided on (1) an intermediate emission scenario as a baseline (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5), (2) a start date set in the future that includes both considerations for the likelihood of exceeding 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and some considerations for a likely start date for an SRM implementation, and (3) a deployment strategy for stratospheric aerosol injection that does not inject in the tropical pipe in order to obtain a more latitudinally uniform aerosol distribution. We also offer more details regarding the preferred experiment length and number of ensemble members and include potential options for second-tier experiments that some modeling groups might want to run. The specifics of the proposed experiment will further allow for a more direct comparison between results obtained from CMIP6 models and those obtained from future scenarios for CMIP7.
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hal-04734177 , version 1 (14-10-2024)

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Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, et al.. G6-1.5K-SAI: a new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment integrating recent advances in solar radiation modification studies. Geoscientific Model Development, 2024, 17 (7), pp.2583-2596. ⟨10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024⟩. ⟨hal-04734177⟩
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