The determinants of trump’s defeat: what if the COVID-19 pandemic did not matter?
Résumé
While the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the lives of many people worldwide, it is currently unclear whether it led to the defeat of incumbent Donald Trump in the 2020 American presidential election. We address this issue by testing different factors of Trump's support, including both pandemic-related considerations and other mainstream explanations of the vote choice. Using a counterfactual strategy, we also investigate how aggregate support for Trump would have looked like if the coronavirus pandemic had lower or no influence in citizens' electoral decision-making compared to real world conditions. For the analysis, we use the ANES 2020 Exploratory Testing Survey. Results show that Trump's electoral defeat depended on multiple factors, including the spread of partisan feelings in the electorate and voters' evaluation of the president's record in various areas. Moreover, aggregate-level analyses also suggest that Trump would have received more support had the health crisis not been relevant to voters.
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