How extreme were daily global temperatures in 2023 and early 2024? - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Geophysical Research Letters Année : 2024

How extreme were daily global temperatures in 2023 and early 2024?

Résumé

Global temperatures were exceptionally high in 2023/24. Every month from June 2023 to June 2024 set a new record, and September shattered the previous record by 0.5 °C. The 2023 annual average approached 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This results from both long-term warming and internal variability, with the occurrence of an El Nino episode. However the amplitude of the 2023/24 anomalies was remarkable and surprised the scientific community. Here we analyze the rarity of 2023/24 global temperatures from a climate perspective. We show that a 'normal' year 2023 would have roughly equalled the previous annual record, and that the most extreme events of 2023/24 rank among the most extreme since 1940. Our analysis suggests that the 2023/24 event can be reconciled with the long-term trend and an intense, but not implausible, peak of internal variability.

Dates et versions

hal-04717688 , version 1 (02-10-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Julien Cattiaux, Aurélien Ribes, Enora Cariou. How extreme were daily global temperatures in 2023 and early 2024?. Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, 51 (19), ⟨10.1029/2024GL110531⟩. ⟨hal-04717688⟩
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