Asymptotics for conformal inference
Résumé
Conformal inference is a versatile tool for building prediction sets in regression or
classification. In this paper, we consider the false coverage proportion (FCP) in a transductive
setting with a calibration sample of n points and a test sample of m points. We identify the
exact, distribution-free, asymptotic distribution of the FCP when both n and m tend to
infinity. This shows in particular that FCP control can be achieved by using the well-known
Kolmogorov distribution, and puts forward that the asymptotic variance is decreasing in the
ratio n/m. We then provide a number of extensions by considering the novelty detection
problem, weighted conformal inference and distribution shift between the calibration sample
and the test sample. In particular, our asymptotical results allow to accurately quantify the
asymptotical behavior of the errors when weighted conformal inference is used.
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AsymptoticConformalARXIV.pdf (633.19 Ko)
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G24_AsymptoticConformal.zip (563.46 Ko)
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