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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2024

Flip-flopping and Endogenous Turnout

Résumé

I consider an electoral competition model where each candidate is associated with an exogenous initial position from which she can deviate to maximize her vote share, a strategy known as flip-flopping. Citizens have an intrinsic preference for consistent candidates, and abstain due to alienation, i.e. when their utility from their preferred candidate falls below a common exogenous threshold (termed the alienation threshold). I show how the alienation threshold shapes candidates’ flip-flopping strategy. When the alienation threshold is high, i.e. when citizens are reluctant to vote, there is no flip-flopping at equilibrium. When the alienation threshold is low, candidates flip-flop toward the center of the policy space. Surprisingly, I find a positive correlation between flip-flopping and voter turnout at equilibrium, despite voters’ preference for consistent candidates. Finally, I explore alternative models in which candidates’ objective function differs from vote share. I show that electoral competition can lead to polarization when candidates maximize their number of votes.
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Dates et versions

hal-04687306 , version 1 (04-09-2024)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04687306 , version 1

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Alexandre Arnout. Flip-flopping and Endogenous Turnout. 2024. ⟨hal-04687306⟩
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