Where will Lycian salamanders, genus Lyciasalamandra, be in the near future in southwestern Anatolia, Turkey? - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Herpetology Notes Année : 2023

Where will Lycian salamanders, genus Lyciasalamandra, be in the near future in southwestern Anatolia, Turkey?

Résumé

Lycian salamanders, genus Lyciasalamandra, are a group of seven allopatric, endangered species restricted to the Mediterranean coast of Anatolia, Turkey and certain adjacent Aegean islands. In this study, we created maps to prediction the potential ranges for six of these species using a maximum-entropy algorithm to identify the most significant environmental factors that shape their distribution. These projections were created under current climate conditions and for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100), using two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), middle-of-the-road (SSP370) and pessimistic (SSP585). We found that temperature and precipitation are the most important factors influencing the distribution of these salamanders in southwestern Turkey. Under both SSP scenarios, we found that five Lyciasalamandra species are likely to shift or reduce their ranges in the near future, while one species (L. antalyana) was predicted to expand its range. For the five negatively affected species, whose ranges are already highly ranges, this predicts that climate change combined with high anthropogenic pressure poses a serious risk of extinction. Significant population declines are predicted, particularly for L. billae and L. luschani. We hope that our findings can serve as a resource for the long-term conservation of these species and aid decisionmakers in the development of effective management strategies.
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hal-04681526 , version 1 (23-09-2024)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04681526 , version 1

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Seyyed Saeed Hosseinian Yousefkhani, Burak Akdağ, Dilara Arslan, Kerim Çiçek. Where will Lycian salamanders, genus Lyciasalamandra, be in the near future in southwestern Anatolia, Turkey?. Herpetology Notes, 2023, 16, pp.241-251. ⟨hal-04681526⟩

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