Quantifying uncertainties in seismic waves propagation with a Fourier Neural Operator surrogate model
Résumé
Physics-based numerical simulations are key tools in earthquake engineering. They complement
the existing datasets of recorded earthquakes by computing on-demand the ground motion
generated by any realistic earthquake scenario. However, high-fidelity earthquake simulations
are computationally demanding since they require solving the hyperbolic elastic wave equation
in large three-dimensional (3D) domains and up to high frequencies.
In addition, simulation parameters are highly uncertain due to the difficulty of conducting geophysical experiments. Parameters of particular interest are i) the ground properties that control
the waves velocity, ii) the position of the earthquake source, iii) the properties of the earthquake
source (i.e. orientation and magnitude). Due to the cost of numerical simulations, repeated calls
to the numerical solvers are unaffordable and efficient surrogate models are required to quantify
uncertainties. Existing surrogate models based on e.g. Gaussian processes [1] or Polynomical
Chaos Expansion [5] do not allow 3D applications with highly heterogeneous domains.
In this work, we propose a surrogate model of seismic waves propagation using a Factorized
Fourier Neural Operator (F-FNO [6]), a deep learning method tailored to Partial Differential
Equations (PDEs). The F-FNO views integral operators as convolutional kernels of learnable
weights and writes the convolution as a product of Fourier coefficients. This leads to efficient
neural operators that have strong relationships with physical equations.
Our training database is built from our HEMEW-3D database of 30,000 High-Performance
Computing (HPC) simulations [2]. For each simulation, a heterogeneous propagation domain
is designed with 3D random fields that represent variations of the rock properties inside the
ground (Fig. 1, left). The source position and orientation are also randomly chosen for each
simulation. Then, seismic waves are propagated from the source up to the surface where they
are recorded by a grid of virtual sensors. Therefore, for each set of input parameters (ground
properties, source position, source orientation), the F-FNO learns to predict the time-dependent
surface wavefields (Fig. 1).
The F-FNO is compared to baseline models and we show that it is an efficient surrogate model
whose accuracy improves when the network complexity increases [3]. Prediction errors are also
quantified in the frequency domain, which indicates that the well-known spectral bias hinders
high-frequency accuracy. In addition, prediction errors are well explained by properties of the
inputs, thereby giving insights on the expected accuracy before making the prediction.
To quantify the influence of geological uncertainties on surface wavefields, transfer learning was
applied to a small dataset of real geologies in Southeastern France [4]. Thanks to the (almost)
negligible cost of the F-FNO evaluation, once duly trained, we obtained meaningful confidence
intervals that are of great significance for the earthquake engineering community.
Domaines
Mathématiques [math]Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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