Assessing climate change impacts on the March 2024 compound floods and Saharan dust outbreak in Europe
Résumé
This study examines the impact of climate change on the compound extreme weather event that caused simultaneous floods in Portugal and an African dust outbreak (ADO) across the Mediterranean region at the end of March 2024. The event was primarily driven by a large low-pressure system near Western Europe. We use circulation analogs to identify similar weather patterns and evaluate the potential influence of climate change on this event over the past 45 years. Our findings indicate that such events have become more frequent and are associated with deeper depressions. Specifically, they feature more intense precipitation over the Western Iberian Peninsula and increased dust transport over the Central-Western Mediterranean, highlighting the role of climate change in amplifying this particular event.
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