Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010–2019 - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Scientific Reports Année : 2024

Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010–2019

Résumé

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly diagnosed tick-borne disease in the northern hemisphere. Since an efficient vaccine is not yet available, prevention of transmission is essential. This, in turn, requires a thorough comprehension of the spatiotemporal dynamics of LB transmission as well as underlying drivers. This study aims to identify spatiotemporal trends and unravel environmental and socio-economic covariates of LB incidence in Poland, using consistent monitoring data from 2010 through 2019 obtained for 320 (aggregated) districts. Using yearly LB incidence values, we identified an overall increase in LB incidence from 2010 to 2019. Additionally, we observed a large variation of LB incidences between the Polish districts, with the highest risks of LB in the eastern districts. We applied spatiotemporal Bayesian models in an all-subsets modeling framework to evaluate potential associations between LB incidence and various potentially relevant environmental and socio-economic variables, including climatic conditions as well as characteristics of the vegetation and the density of tick host species. The best-supported spatiotemporal model identified positive relationships between LB incidence and forest cover, the share of parks and green areas, minimum monthly temperature, mean monthly precipitation, and gross primary productivity. A negative relationship was found with human population density. The findings of our study indicate that LB incidence in Poland might increase as a result of ongoing climate change, notably increases in minimum monthly temperature. Our results may aid in the development of targeted prevention strategies.

Domaines

Parasitologie
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
s41598-024-61349-z.pdf (2.26 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-04635886 , version 1 (04-07-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Joanna Kulisz, Selwyn Hoeks, Renata Kunc-Kozioł, Aneta Woźniak, Zbigniew Zając, et al.. Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010–2019. Scientific Reports, 2024, 14, ⟨10.1038/s41598-024-61349-z⟩. ⟨hal-04635886⟩
0 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Mastodon Facebook X LinkedIn More