Valley Winds at the Local Scale: Correcting Routine Weather Forecast Using Artificial Neural Networks - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Atmosphere Année : 2021

Valley Winds at the Local Scale: Correcting Routine Weather Forecast Using Artificial Neural Networks

Résumé

In regions of complex topography, local flows are difficult to forecast on a routine basis, especially in stable conditions, due to the coarse resolution of operational models. The Cadarache valley (southeastern France) features this sort of complex topography. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run daily to forecast the weather in this region with a horizontal resolution of 3 km. Such a resolution cannot resolve all topography details of the small Cadarache valley, and therefore its local wind patterns. Other variables, however, that are less dependent on the subgrid topography, are satisfactorily forecasted, and used as inputs to an artificial neural network (ANN) designed to reproduce wind observations inside the valley from WRF forecasts. A variable selection procedure identified 5 key input variables that best drive the ANN. With respect to the WRF output, the ANN significantly improves forecasted low-level winds, both for speed and direction. This study demonstrates the potential for the ANN technique to be used as a correcting tool to forecast weather conditions at the local scale when numerical modeling is performed at a resolution too coarse to take into account the effect of local topography.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
atmosphere-12-00128-v2.pdf (4.07 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-04619943 , version 1 (25-06-2024)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Florian Dupuy, Gert-Jan Duine, Pierre Durand, Thierry Hedde, Eric Pardyjak, et al.. Valley Winds at the Local Scale: Correcting Routine Weather Forecast Using Artificial Neural Networks. Atmosphere, 2021, 12 (2), pp.128. ⟨10.3390/atmos12020128⟩. ⟨hal-04619943⟩
0 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Mastodon Facebook X LinkedIn More